TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415577
Played Aug 13Finished
Denys Boltnekov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411511811––––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltnekov to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Boltnekov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Denys Boltnekov at 66.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Denys Boltnekov 2–2 Ruslan Serhyenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Boltnekov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltnekov 1398 vs Serhyenko 1300
Boltnekov
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltnekov 80% vs Serhyenko 0%
Boltnekov
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltnekov 60% vs Serhyenko 30%
Boltnekov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltnekov -1 · Serhyenko -5
Serhyenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Boltnekov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltnekov 1.44 / Serhyenko 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Boltnekov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415577
Boltnekov1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Serhyenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 63 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBoltnekov2wins
AwaySerhyenko2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltnekov66.7%2 of 3
AwaySerhyenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltnekov3Serhyenko1n = 4Boltnekov took 3 of 4
S2Boltnekov2Serhyenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Boltnekov2Serhyenko2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBoltnekovSerhyenkoB − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match34.234.8−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltnekovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 37 vs 264 / 59351.4%44.5%19 / 37 vs 264 / 593Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltnekovBoltnekov 1.44/Serhyenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Boltnekov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov—4580R. Serhyenko—1111113
WAug 6 · 12:35D. Boltnekov—11127113R. Serhyenko—6101181
LAug 4 · 18:05D. Boltnekov—11811772R. Serhyenko—811711113
WJul 30 · 14:35D. Boltnekov—1311113R. Serhyenko—11390
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.801111113D. Boltnekov1.917960LAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov2.001111113D. Boltnekov1.732740WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.575690D. Boltnekov2.251111113WAug 11 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.5011811992D. Boltnekov1.50711111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080LAug 11 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.501111105113D. Boltnekov2.5073121192WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970
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