TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12399116
Played Aug 11Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611911––––
Denys Boltnekov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:32 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Denys Boltnekov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 53 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 57.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 2–0 Denys Boltnekov Denys Boltnekov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1408 vs Boltnekov 1387
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 60% vs Boltnekov 40%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 60% vs Boltnekov 40%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov -1 · Boltnekov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Elfemov) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 1.57 / Boltnekov 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Elfemov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12399116
Elfemov1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 109 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 82 of 99
Boltnekov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeElfemov2wins
AwayBoltnekov0wins
Elfemov leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricElfemovBoltnekovE − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.535.0+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovBoltnekovBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 408 vs 15 / 3061.3%50%250 / 408 vs 15 / 30Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovElfemov 1.57/Boltnekov 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Boltnekov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 30 · 19:35I. Elfemov—11711143D. Boltnekov—8119121
WJul 28 · 19:25I. Elfemov—71111113D. Boltnekov—117481
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.801111113D. Boltnekov1.917960LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov1.444580R. Serhyenko2.631111113LAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov2.001111113D. Boltnekov1.732740WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.5011811992D. Boltnekov1.50711111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080LAug 11 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.501111105113D. Boltnekov2.5073121192WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
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