TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415588
Played Aug 13Finished
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119116––––
Denys Boltnekov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Hainiuk to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Denys Boltnekov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Volodymyr Hainiuk at 56.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 3–2 Denys Boltnekov Denys Boltnekov has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hainiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hainiuk 1411 vs Boltnekov 1415
Boltnekov
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hainiuk 40% vs Boltnekov 60%
Boltnekov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hainiuk 40% vs Boltnekov 60%
Boltnekov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hainiuk -2 · Boltnekov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hainiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hainiuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHainiuk 1.80 / Boltnekov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hainiuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12415588
Hainiuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 112 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 77 of 97
Boltnekov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHainiuk3wins
AwayBoltnekov2wins
Hainiuk leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHainiuk100%3 of 3
AwayBoltnekovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hainiuk3Boltnekov2n = 5Hainiuk took 3 of 5
S2Hainiuk3Boltnekov2n = 5Hainiuk took 3 of 5
S3Hainiuk3Boltnekov2n = 5Hainiuk took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricHainiukBoltnekovH − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.632.4+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHainiukBoltnekovBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 684 vs 19 / 3655%52.8%376 / 684 vs 19 / 36Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HainiukHainiuk 1.80/Boltnekov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hainiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk—1112113D. Boltnekov—81080
WAug 4 · 19:35V. Hainiuk—11117123D. Boltnekov—8811101
WJul 31 · 16:25V. Hainiuk—1112113D. Boltnekov—91030
LJul 28 · 18:25V. Hainiuk—7950D. Boltnekov—1111113
LJul 21 · 17:33V. Hainiuk—8811111D. Boltnekov—11119133
V. Hainiuk10
LSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113LSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113LSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113LSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741LAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781WAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101WAug 31 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7371211772V. Hainiuk2.001110511113
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov1.444580R. Serhyenko2.631111113LAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov2.001111113D. Boltnekov1.732740WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.575690D. Boltnekov2.251111113WAug 11 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.5011811992D. Boltnekov1.50711111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080LAug 11 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.501111105113D. Boltnekov2.5073121192WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
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