TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415460
Played Aug 13Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112117114––––
Denys Boltnekov
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltnekov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Denys Boltnekov below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 46 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denys Boltnekov at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 4–1 Denys Boltnekov Denys Boltnekov has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Boltnekov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Elfemov
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1422 vs Boltnekov 1398
Elfemov
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 40% vs Boltnekov 100%
Boltnekov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 60% vs Boltnekov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +2 · Boltnekov +5
Boltnekov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boltnekov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltnekov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.00 / Boltnekov 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Boltnekov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12415460
Elfemov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 32 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Boltnekov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeElfemov4wins
AwayBoltnekov1wins
Elfemov leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov100%3 of 3
AwayBoltnekovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov3Boltnekov2n = 5Elfemov took 3 of 5
S2Elfemov3Boltnekov2n = 5Elfemov took 3 of 5
S3Elfemov4Boltnekov1n = 5Elfemov took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricElfemovBoltnekovE − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.828.0+5.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovBoltnekovBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 415 vs 19 / 3761.2%51.4%254 / 415 vs 19 / 37Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltnekovElfemov 2.00/Boltnekov 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Boltnekov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov—1111113D. Boltnekov—2740
LAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov—5690D. Boltnekov—1111113
WAug 6 · 12:35I. Elfemov—1111113D. Boltnekov—8880
WJul 30 · 19:35I. Elfemov—11711143D. Boltnekov—8119121
WJul 28 · 19:25I. Elfemov—71111113D. Boltnekov—117481
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.801111113D. Boltnekov1.917960LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov1.444580R. Serhyenko2.631111113WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.575690D. Boltnekov2.251111113WAug 11 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.5011811992D. Boltnekov1.50711111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080LAug 11 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.501111105113D. Boltnekov2.5073121192WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
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