TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12369831
Played Aug 7Finished
Tomas Varnuska
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311611711411––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Varnuska above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 74 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Varnuska 5–5 Radim Pavelka Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Varnuska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varnuska 1527 vs Pavelka 1628
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varnuska 40% vs Pavelka 60%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varnuska 50% vs Pavelka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varnuska -2 · Pavelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varnuska form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarnuska 1.80 / Pavelka 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12369831
Varnuska1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 14 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Pavelka1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 81 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarnuska5wins
AwayPavelka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarnuska80%4 of 5
AwayPavelka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varnuska5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S2Varnuska4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Varnuska4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S4Varnuska4Pavelka2n = 6Varnuska took 4 of 6
S5Varnuska2Pavelka1n = 3Varnuska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarnuskaPavelkaV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.1+0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarnuskaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 120 vs 449 / 88646.7%50.7%56 / 120 vs 449 / 886Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaVarnuska 1.80/Pavelka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 06:00T. Varnuska30136741R. Pavelka44111111113
WJun 5 · 08:59T. Varnuska47951111113R. Pavelka4211116772
LJun 5 · 08:00T. Varnuska167360R. Pavelka331111113
LMay 6 · 09:00T. Varnuska37911891R. Pavelka3911611113
LMay 6 · 07:00T. Varnuska2410860R. Pavelka341211113
WApr 17 · 08:30T. Varnuska50118911113R. Pavelka4231111982
WApr 8 · 09:00T. Varnuska331111113R. Pavelka135620
WApr 8 · 07:30T. Varnuska371111153R. Pavelka2364130
LSep 25 · 06:00T. Varnuska53411716152R. Pavelka601171114173
WSep 12 · 08:30T. Varnuska4011711113R. Pavelka31711761
T. Varnuska10
LSep 15 · 06:00T. Varnuska2.3871050P. Zmuda1.531112113LAug 14 · 08:59T. Varnuska1.731110761D. Oborny2.0041211113WAug 14 · 08:30T. Varnuska1.80118614113D. Oborny1.91811111232LAug 14 · 07:00T. Varnuska2.2561540J. Stolfa1.571117113LAug 14 · 06:00T. Janata1.5012811113T. Varnuska2.501011861WAug 7 · 08:58T. Varnuska1.911111113M. Vedmoch1.806230LAug 7 · 08:00T. Varnuska1.73610100J. Plachy2.001112123WAug 7 · 07:30M. Vedmoch1.576310T. Varnuska2.251111113LJul 21 · 08:58T. Varnuska2.1011114462D. Tuma1.67681111113LJul 21 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.508111111112D. Tuma1.50119137133
R. Pavelka10
WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Varnuska
R. Pavelka
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