TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12421545
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Varnuska
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111517411––––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Varnuska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Varnuska above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 64 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Tomas Varnuska at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Varnuska 1–1 Jakub Stolfa Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:06What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stolfa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Varnuska 1522 vs Stolfa 1663
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varnuska 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varnuska 40% vs Stolfa 70%
Stolfa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varnuska -1 · Stolfa +4
Stolfa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarnuska 2.25 / Stolfa 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Stolfa)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12421545
Varnuska2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 10 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back33% 3 of 9
Stolfa1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 58 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVarnuska1wins
AwayStolfa1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricVarnuskaStolfaV − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.534.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarnuskaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 120 vs 174 / 34045.8%51.2%55 / 120 vs 174 / 340Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaVarnuska 2.25/Stolfa 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 14 · 07:00T. Varnuska2561540J. Stolfa391117113
WJul 17 · 07:30T. Varnuska4291111113J. Stolfa29115581
T. Varnuska10
LSep 15 · 06:00T. Varnuska2.3871050P. Zmuda1.531112113LAug 14 · 08:59T. Varnuska1.731110761D. Oborny2.0041211113WAug 14 · 08:30T. Varnuska1.80118614113D. Oborny1.91811111232LAug 14 · 06:00T. Janata1.5012811113T. Varnuska2.501011861WAug 7 · 08:58T. Varnuska1.911111113M. Vedmoch1.806230LAug 7 · 08:00T. Varnuska1.73610100J. Plachy2.001112123WAug 7 · 07:30M. Vedmoch1.576310T. Varnuska2.251111113LAug 7 · 06:00T. Varnuska1.80136741R. Pavelka1.91111111113LJul 21 · 08:58T. Varnuska2.1011114462D. Tuma1.67681111113LJul 21 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.508111111112D. Tuma1.50119137133
J. Stolfa10
LSep 15 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.205530V. Cermak1.611111113LSep 14 · 09:28J. Stolfa2.10213681V. Cermak1.67111111113WSep 14 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.671111113M. Vesely2.109690LSep 14 · 07:30V. Cermak1.611111119113J. Stolfa2.2013991162WSep 14 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.83711116123P. Zmuda1.83119911102LSep 10 · 20:58M. Volf2.3811911113J. Stolfa1.53511581WSep 10 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.7391111113M. Volf2.00117751LSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.0011115113J. Stolfa1.73991141LSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113WSep 10 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.8011811762J. Stolfa1.91911911113
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