TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104630
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113411511––––
Karel Kapras
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:38 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Karel Kapras at 56.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 2–1 Karel Kapras Karel Kapras has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:38What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1644 vs Kapras 1549
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 80% vs Kapras 40%
Stolfa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 90% vs Kapras 30%
Stolfa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +1 · Kapras -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.73 / Kapras 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Stolfa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104630
Stolfa1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 82 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Kapras2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 15 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStolfa2wins
AwayKapras1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStolfa leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa1Kapras2n = 3Kapras took 2 of 3
S2Stolfa2Kapras1n = 3Stolfa took 2 of 3
S3Stolfa0Kapras3n = 3Kapras took 3 of 3
S4Stolfa2Kapras1n = 3Stolfa took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStolfaKaprasS − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.746.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 345 vs 174 / 34652.5%50.3%181 / 345 vs 174 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaStolfa 1.73/Kapras 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kapras won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 1 · 19:30J. Stolfa—119651K. Kapras—71111113
WAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa—4131111113K. Kapras—111113842
WAug 25 · 18:00J. Stolfa—7111012133K. Kapras—1171210112
J. Stolfa10
WSep 10 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.8011811762J. Stolfa1.91911911113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.831162101J. Svoboda1.8381111123WSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.53117117113T. Vinter2.3861191182WSep 9 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.871311113M. Bittner1.8311690WSep 9 · 20:30D. Tuma1.83118581J. Stolfa1.8391111113WSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071WSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123WSep 9 · 17:29J. Hradecky1.80121111792J. Stolfa1.91147611113WSep 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.5711105121J. Stolfa2.2581211143
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842LAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras1.91671181V. Cermak1.8011119113
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