TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104110
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1186112111012––
Jan Svoboda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Jan Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 71 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jan Svoboda at 68.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 1–2 Jan Svoboda Jakub Stolfa has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1622 vs Svoboda 1694
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 100% vs Svoboda 80%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 80% vs Svoboda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +5 · Svoboda +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.83 / Svoboda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svoboda)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104110
Stolfa1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Svoboda1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStolfa1wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSvoboda leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa2Svoboda1n = 3Stolfa took 2 of 3
S2Stolfa1Svoboda2n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S3Stolfa2Svoboda1n = 3Stolfa took 2 of 3
S4Stolfa1Svoboda2n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStolfaSvobodaStolfa − SvobodaBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.741.3−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 343 vs 12 / 1852.2%66.7%179 / 343 vs 12 / 18Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaStolfa 1.83/Svoboda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa—1162101J. Svoboda—81111123
WAug 30 · 07:00J. Stolfa—111013113J. Svoboda—3121161
LAug 17 · 10:00J. Stolfa—911116112J. Svoboda—118711133
J. Stolfa10
WSep 10 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.53117117113T. Vinter2.3861191182WSep 9 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.871311113M. Bittner1.8311690WSep 9 · 20:30D. Tuma1.83118581J. Stolfa1.8391111113WSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071WSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123WSep 9 · 17:29J. Hradecky1.80121111792J. Stolfa1.91147611113WSep 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.5711105121J. Stolfa2.2581211143LSep 9 · 15:00J. Hradecky1.73411919113J. Stolfa2.00119111752WSep 9 · 14:30J. Stolfa1.674121111113M. Sedlak2.1011148962LSep 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa2.25111111342M. Vedmoch1.57132811113
J. Svoboda10
WSep 10 · 07:00T. Vinter2.0344111172J. Svoboda1.62111148113WSep 7 · 09:29J. Svoboda1.40111111123J. Prokupek2.750138101WSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:30J. Prokupek3.2510670J. Svoboda1.331211113LSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471LSep 5 · 07:00J. Svoboda2.2010111081M. Sedlak1.6112412113WSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113
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