TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104097
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Vinter
Home
2.03
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411411114118711
Jan Svoboda
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Vinter above · Jan Svoboda below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 82 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Svoboda at 75.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vinter 0–1 Jan Svoboda Tomas Vinter has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vinter 1415 vs Svoboda 1674
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vinter 0% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinter 20% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinter -5 · Svoboda +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinter 2.03 / Svoboda 1.62
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104097
Vinter2.03
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Svoboda1.62
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite83% won 10 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVinter0wins
AwaySvoboda1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSvoboda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVinterSvobodaV − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.045.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinterSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 521 vs 11 / 1749.9%64.7%260 / 521 vs 11 / 17Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaVinter 2.03/Svoboda 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 10 · 07:00T. Vinter—44111172J. Svoboda—111148113
T. Vinter10
LSep 10 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.53117117113T. Vinter2.3861191182LSep 3 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.611211113T. Vinter2.2010990LSep 3 · 20:30T. Vinter1.738280V. Postelt2.001111113LSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113LSep 3 · 18:00M. Sedlak1.80121111113T. Vinter1.911013251LSep 1 · 21:12J. Dedek2.1511118113T. Vinter1.63221121LSep 1 · 20:00T. Vinter1.5010340M. Vedmoch2.501211113WSep 1 · 19:30J. Dedek2.20119511112T. Vinter1.61911118133LSep 1 · 18:00T. Vinter1.36861181M. Kolar3.0011119113WAug 30 · 20:59T. Vinter2.251111123T. Janata1.5795100
J. Svoboda10
WSep 7 · 09:29J. Svoboda1.40111111123J. Prokupek2.750138101WSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:30J. Prokupek3.2510670J. Svoboda1.331211113LSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471LSep 5 · 07:00J. Svoboda2.2010111081M. Sedlak1.6112412113WSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113WAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872
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