TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106297
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
1.87
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116119––––
Martin Bittner
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Martin Bittner below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 66.3%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 1–0 Martin Bittner Martin Bittner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stolfa beat Bittner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Bittner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1605 vs Bittner 1540
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 100% vs Bittner 40%
Stolfa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 70% vs Bittner 20%
Stolfa
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +5 · Bittner +2
Stolfa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bittner) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bittner form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.87 / Bittner 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bittner)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13106297
Stolfa1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 61 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back37% 25 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Bittner1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 26 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStolfa1wins
AwayBittner0wins
Stolfa leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStolfaBittnerS − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.040.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaBittnerBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 340 vs 35 / 7152.1%49.3%177 / 340 vs 35 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BittnerStolfa 1.87/Bittner 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bittner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 18:30J. Stolfa—11123123M. Bittner—91011101
J. Stolfa10
WSep 9 · 20:30D. Tuma1.83118581J. Stolfa1.8391111113WSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071WSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123WSep 9 · 17:29J. Hradecky1.80121111792J. Stolfa1.91147611113WSep 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.5711105121J. Stolfa2.2581211143LSep 9 · 15:00J. Hradecky1.73411919113J. Stolfa2.00119111752WSep 9 · 14:30J. Stolfa1.674121111113M. Sedlak2.1011148962LSep 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa2.25111111342M. Vedmoch1.57132811113WSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110LSep 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.008870M. Vedmoch1.731111113
M. Bittner10
WSep 9 · 20:00M. Pikous2.008111191M. Bittner1.7311913113WSep 9 · 19:00D. Tuma2.3897111182M. Bittner1.53111169113LSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123LAug 2 · 20:59M. Sychra1.331113123M. Bittner3.25511100LAug 2 · 20:00M. Sychra1.401111113M. Bittner2.759880LAug 2 · 19:00P. Sebera1.911313113M. Bittner1.80111180LAug 2 · 18:30M. Bittner2.6311320O. Svacha1.441311113LAug 2 · 12:59M. Regner1.4411115113M. Bittner2.63871171LAug 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.50111111123M. Bittner2.506137101LAug 2 · 11:30M. Bittner2.6391090V. Vejvoda1.441112113
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