TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125661
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116119––––
Michal Vesely
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 7–4 Michal Vesely Michal Vesely has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stolfa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Stolfa
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1620 vs Vesely 1573
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 40% vs Vesely 20%
Stolfa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 60% vs Vesely 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +1 · Vesely -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesely form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.67 / Vesely 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stolfa)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125661
Stolfa1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 75 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Vesely2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStolfa6wins
AwayVesely4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa66.7%4 of 6
AwayVesely50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa6Vesely4n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S2Stolfa5Vesely5n = 10split evenly
S3Stolfa4Vesely6n = 10Vesely took 6 of 10
S4Stolfa4Vesely5n = 9Vesely took 5 of 9
S5Stolfa4Vesely1n = 5Stolfa took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStolfaVeselyS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.539.5+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 350 vs 66 / 11852.3%55.9%183 / 350 vs 66 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaStolfa 1.67/Vesely 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 07:30J. Stolfa50711912113M. Vesely47118111072
WAug 26 · 11:00J. Stolfa45111184113M. Vesely3766111132
LAug 20 · 08:30J. Stolfa381191261M. Vesely4371114113
WAug 16 · 16:00J. Stolfa44121011113M. Vesely321012641
WAug 14 · 13:30J. Stolfa351311113M. Vesely2211740
LAug 14 · 12:30J. Stolfa36119971M. Vesely3961111113
LAug 12 · 16:59J. Stolfa31591161M. Vesely3911116113
WAug 12 · 16:30J. Stolfa528111111113M. Vesely4611613972
WAug 9 · 12:30J. Stolfa45111157113M. Vesely4287111152
LAug 7 · 10:00J. Stolfa3955111172M. Vesely48111187113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 14 · 07:30V. Cermak1.611111119113J. Stolfa2.2013991162WSep 14 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.83711116123P. Zmuda1.83119911102LSep 10 · 20:58M. Volf2.3811911113J. Stolfa1.53511581WSep 10 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.7391111113M. Volf2.00117751LSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.0011115113J. Stolfa1.73991141LSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113WSep 10 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.8011811762J. Stolfa1.91911911113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.831162101J. Svoboda1.8381111123WSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.53117117113T. Vinter2.3861191182
M. Vesely10
LSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.67591111113M. Vesely2.1011114992WSep 14 · 06:30M. Vesely2.25971211133V. Cermak1.571111107112LSep 10 · 08:58T. Vinter1.7311711123M. Vesely2.002116101LSep 10 · 08:30T. Vinter2.0011811113M. Vesely1.73511641LSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113LSep 10 · 06:30J. Svoboda1.7311811113M. Vesely2.00811681WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 11:30J. Trefny2.20111111572M. Vesely1.61137911113WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141
Upcoming Matches
J. Stolfa
Nothing scheduled
M. Vesely
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