TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124385
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Vesely
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91171112101171311
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Vesely to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vesely above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 102 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Michal Vesely at 54.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vesely 1–0 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vesely 1573 vs Cermak 1480
Vesely
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesely 20% vs Cermak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesely 60% vs Cermak 30%
Vesely
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesely -4 · Cermak -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesely 2.25 / Cermak 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vesely)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124385
Vesely2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Cermak1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 142 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it91% 71 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it78% 114 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVesely1wins
AwayCermak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVesely leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVeselyCermakV − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match52.050.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeselyCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 118 vs 543 / 107155.9%50.7%66 / 118 vs 543 / 1071Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakVesely 2.25/Cermak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vesely won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 14 · 06:30M. Vesely52971211133V. Cermak501111107112
M. Vesely10
LSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.67591111113M. Vesely2.1011114992LSep 10 · 08:58T. Vinter1.7311711123M. Vesely2.002116101LSep 10 · 08:30T. Vinter2.0011811113M. Vesely1.73511641LSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113LSep 10 · 06:30J. Svoboda1.7311811113M. Vesely2.00811681WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 11:30J. Trefny2.20111111572M. Vesely1.61137911113WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141WAug 26 · 12:58M. Vesely1.5771111113M. Vedmoch2.25118891
V. Cermak10
WSep 14 · 07:30V. Cermak1.611111119113J. Stolfa2.2013991162LSep 12 · 02:58R. Krejci2.00119611113V. Cermak1.7371111592LSep 12 · 02:00V. Cermak2.101071181P. Pycha1.6712115113LSep 12 · 01:00V. Cermak2.00891111112S. Kadavy1.73111147133LSep 12 · 24:00M. Sopko1.731111113V. Cermak2.001860WSep 11 · 22:30R. Krejci2.008490V. Cermak1.731111113LSep 11 · 03:30M. Vizek1.5081111123V. Cermak2.501158101LSep 11 · 02:00M. Vizek1.50146118123V. Cermak2.501211611102LSep 11 · 24:30V. Cermak2.001081112112M. Volf1.731211910133WSep 10 · 23:00V. Cermak2.635111012113M. Sobisek1.44115121052
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