TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105022
Played Sep 10Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111510121210115
Martin Sobisek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 65.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 20–34 Martin Sobisek Vladimir Cermak has won 20 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sobisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-34 in 54
Sobisek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1499 vs Sobisek 1721
Sobisek
Wrong
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 40% vs Sobisek 80%
Sobisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 30% vs Sobisek 90%
Sobisek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +1 · Sobisek +4
Sobisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sobisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.63 / Sobisek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Sobisek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105022
Cermak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Sobisek1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite59% won 107 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it98% 62 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 81 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak1wins
AwaySobisek9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySobisek90%9 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak0Sobisek10n = 10Sobisek took 10 of 10
S2Cermak3Sobisek7n = 10Sobisek took 7 of 10
S3Cermak4Sobisek6n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S4Cermak2Sobisek5n = 7Sobisek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakSobisekC − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match33.041.3−8.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime545 / 1069 vs 555 / 117751%47.2%545 / 1069 vs 555 / 1177Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekCermak 2.63/Sobisek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 17:29V. Cermak—7650M. Sobisek—1111113
LSep 8 · 15:30V. Cermak—75100M. Sobisek—1111123
LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak—981181M. Sobisek—11115113
LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak—5450M. Sobisek—1111113
LAug 26 · 22:30V. Cermak—51131152M. Sobisek—118116113
LAug 26 · 21:29V. Cermak—871191M. Sobisek—11115113
LAug 26 · 19:00V. Cermak—131213121M. Sobisek—151015143
LAug 25 · 21:05V. Cermak—10119101M. Sobisek—12911123
LAug 25 · 18:30V. Cermak—1121161M. Sobisek—13118113
WAug 25 · 17:30V. Cermak—6111111113M. Sobisek—11139972
V. Cermak10
WSep 10 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.7551141352V. Cermak1.401161111113LSep 10 · 03:28J. Hradecky1.441112113V. Cermak2.6371060LSep 10 · 01:30V. Cermak2.6341451162J. Hradecky1.441112117113LSep 10 · 24:30D. Kouble1.7313811113V. Cermak2.001111781WSep 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch3.009111281V. Cermak1.36111310113WSep 9 · 22:30V. Cermak3.5012411113A. Hlawatschke1.281011561LSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113LSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420LSep 8 · 23:30D. Tuma2.10115911113V. Cermak1.6781111952LSep 8 · 22:30V. Cermak2.631011111262A. Hlawatschke1.441213810113
M. Sobisek10
WSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek1.80111310113K. Kapras1.907111251WSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras1.80921231M. Sobisek1.91111110113WSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.0011115113J. Stolfa1.73991141WSep 10 · 18:30M. Volf2.25411261M. Sobisek1.5711811113LSep 9 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.65118641M. Sopko2.1091111113WSep 9 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.38314951M. Sobisek1.53111211113WSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420WSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WSep 8 · 22:00D. Tuma1.80631581M. Sobisek1.91111113113WSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650
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