TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104998
Played Sep 10Finished
Karel Kapras
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9112111210311––
Martin Sobisek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 57.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 13–13 Martin Sobisek Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-13 in 26
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1555 vs Sobisek 1707
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 40% vs Sobisek 80%
Sobisek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 40% vs Sobisek 80%
Sobisek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras -1 · Sobisek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 1.80 / Sobisek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobisek)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104998
Kapras1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 39 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Sobisek1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 139 of 359
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapras7wins
AwaySobisek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapras leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapras75%6 of 8
AwaySobisekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras8Sobisek2n = 10Kapras took 8 of 10
S2Kapras6Sobisek4n = 10Kapras took 6 of 10
S3Kapras5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapras5Sobisek1n = 6Kapras took 5 of 6
S5Kapras1Sobisek2n = 3Sobisek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaprasSobisekK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.7+3.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 336 vs 553 / 117550%47.1%168 / 336 vs 553 / 1175Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekKapras 1.80/Sobisek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras—71080M. Sobisek—1112113
WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras—1111113M. Sobisek—6580
WAug 6 · 18:30K. Kapras—1111113M. Sobisek—4490
WMay 26 · 20:30K. Kapras—11111113M. Sobisek—117791
WMay 1 · 16:30K. Kapras—1111133M. Sobisek—74110
WMar 16 · 20:30K. Kapras—12119113M. Sobisek—1091161
LMar 12 · 21:00K. Kapras—11281192M. Sobisek—711118113
WFeb 27 · 16:00K. Kapras—1191211113M. Sobisek—91114562
WJan 4 · 11:30K. Kapras—11128143M. Sobisek—81011121
LDec 31 · 14:05K. Kapras—11811742M. Sobisek—911911113
K. Kapras10
LSep 10 · 19:00K. Kapras1.73111111272M. Volf2.00371311113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113
M. Sobisek10
WSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.0011115113J. Stolfa1.73991141WSep 10 · 18:30M. Volf2.25411261M. Sobisek1.5711811113LSep 9 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.65118641M. Sopko2.1091111113WSep 9 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.38314951M. Sobisek1.53111211113WSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420WSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WSep 8 · 22:00D. Tuma1.80631581M. Sobisek1.91111113113WSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650LSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110WAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113
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