TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104988
Played Sep 10Finished
Karel Kapras
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1131171113211711
Matej Volf
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Volf to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Matej Volf below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Matej Volf at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 2–2 Matej Volf Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1567 vs Volf 1538
Kapras
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 40% vs Volf 20%
Kapras
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 40% vs Volf 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras +1 · Volf -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapras) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volf form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 1.73 / Volf 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapras)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104988
Kapras1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 39 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Volf2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKapras2wins
AwayVolf2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras2Volf2n = 4split evenly
S2Kapras2Volf2n = 4split evenly
S3Kapras2Volf2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKaprasVolfK − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.035.2+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasVolfBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 335 vs 206 / 39950.2%51.6%168 / 335 vs 206 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasKapras 1.73/Volf 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 29 · 22:30K. Kapras—111191052M. Volf—571112113
WOct 29 · 20:30K. Kapras—881111113M. Volf—11117932
LApr 15 · 21:30K. Kapras—10580M. Volf—1211113
WApr 15 · 20:00K. Kapras—1112113M. Volf—51050
K. Kapras10
WSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842
M. Volf10
LSep 10 · 18:30M. Volf2.25411261M. Sobisek1.5711811113LSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113WSep 6 · 21:30M. Volf1.93117118113M. Vizek1.7751191192LSep 6 · 20:00M. Vizek1.8312101411123M. Volf1.831412126102WSep 6 · 19:00R. Krejci2.007680M. Volf1.731111113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Volf2.25911112123T. Janata1.57118611102LAug 11 · 01:30M. Sobisek1.501111113M. Volf2.506920
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