TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104624
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Sobisek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119511114––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 4–13 Jakub Stolfa Martin Sobisek has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:37What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1698 vs Stolfa 1627
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 80% vs Stolfa 60%
Sobisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 80% vs Stolfa 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +1 · Stolfa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 2.00 / Stolfa 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stolfa)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104624
Sobisek2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 139 of 359
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 124
Stolfa1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 82 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek3wins
AwayStolfa7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek50%2 of 4
AwayStolfa83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S3Sobisek4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek2Stolfa6n = 8Stolfa took 6 of 8
S5Sobisek2Stolfa1n = 3Sobisek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekStolfaSobisek − StolfaBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.9−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime552 / 1174 vs 181 / 34647%52.3%552 / 1174 vs 181 / 346Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaSobisek 2.00/Stolfa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:30M. Sobisek—812110J. Stolfa—1114133
WSep 6 · 20:30M. Sobisek—1110119113J. Stolfa—51291152
LSep 3 · 14:30M. Sobisek—120651J. Stolfa—101111113
LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sobisek—9680J. Stolfa—1111113
LAug 25 · 20:00M. Sobisek—13911111J. Stolfa—15117133
LAug 21 · 14:30M. Sobisek—911491J. Stolfa—11311113
WAug 21 · 10:00M. Sobisek—11118113J. Stolfa—651141
LAug 19 · 13:30M. Sobisek—116581J. Stolfa—71111113
LAug 19 · 11:00M. Sobisek—81411972J. Stolfa—1112711113
WAug 19 · 06:30M. Sobisek—651211113J. Stolfa—111110652
M. Sobisek10
WSep 10 · 18:30M. Volf2.25411261M. Sobisek1.5711811113LSep 9 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.65118641M. Sopko2.1091111113WSep 9 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.38314951M. Sobisek1.53111211113WSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420WSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WSep 8 · 22:00D. Tuma1.80631581M. Sobisek1.91111113113WSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650LSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110WSep 8 · 15:30M. Sobisek1.611111123V. Cermak2.2075100WSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143
J. Stolfa10
LSep 10 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.7311450K. Kapras2.001311113WSep 10 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.8011811762J. Stolfa1.91911911113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.831162101J. Svoboda1.8381111123WSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.53117117113T. Vinter2.3861191182WSep 9 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.871311113M. Bittner1.8311690WSep 9 · 20:30D. Tuma1.83118581J. Stolfa1.8391111113WSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071WSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123WSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110
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