TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13101926
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Sobisek
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811611411––
Martin Sopko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Martin Sopko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 59.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 22–12 Martin Sopko Martin Sopko has won 12 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Sobisek beat Sopko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Sobisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-12 in 34
Sobisek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1682 vs Sopko 1633
Sobisek
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 100% vs Sopko 80%
Sobisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 80% vs Sopko 50%
Sobisek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +5 · Sopko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sobisek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 1.65 / Sopko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sobisek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13101926
Sobisek1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 107 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 59 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it78% 78 of 100
Sopko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back36% 16 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek7wins
AwaySopko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySopko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek6Sopko4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek7Sopko3n = 10Sobisek took 7 of 10
S3Sobisek6Sopko4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek4Sopko1n = 5Sobisek took 4 of 5
S5Sobisek2Sopko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekSopkoSobisek − SopkoBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.133.1+6.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekSopkoBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1173 vs 166 / 35547%46.8%551 / 1173 vs 166 / 355Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekSobisek 1.65/Sopko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sopko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek—1111113M. Sopko—8890
WAug 27 · 01:00M. Sobisek—911911113M. Sopko—11811692
WJun 7 · 19:30M. Sobisek—911611113M. Sopko—11211662
WJun 6 · 02:00M. Sobisek—1111113M. Sopko—9550
LJun 5 · 20:30M. Sobisek—91111992M. Sopko—116311113
WMay 28 · 23:30M. Sobisek—13611113M. Sopko—1111481
WMay 21 · 03:30M. Sobisek—1116113M. Sopko—61480
LMay 20 · 22:30M. Sobisek—7960M. Sopko—1111113
LApr 26 · 14:30M. Sobisek—11661192M. Sopko—711119113
WApr 26 · 10:30M. Sobisek—1111113M. Sopko—7940
M. Sobisek10
WSep 9 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.38314951M. Sobisek1.53111211113WSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420WSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WSep 8 · 22:00D. Tuma1.80631581M. Sobisek1.91111113113WSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650LSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110WSep 8 · 15:30M. Sobisek1.611111123V. Cermak2.2075100WSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051
M. Sopko10
WSep 9 · 02:30M. Sopko1.441111113D. Tuma2.636960WSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113WSep 9 · 24:00M. Sopko1.331111113A. Hlawatschke3.256760LSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143LAug 27 · 02:30J. Hradecky2.50111159113M. Sopko1.5085111162LAug 27 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.67911911113M. Sopko2.1011811692LAug 26 · 23:30M. Sopko2.108360V. Cermak1.671111113WAug 26 · 22:00M. Sopko2.63541111113M. Regner1.4411115732LAug 23 · 20:58M. Sopko2.0011139792R. Pacha1.735111111113
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