TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047765
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113117119511711
Michal Vesely
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 1–1 Michal Vesely Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vesely
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1503 vs Vesely 1587
Vesely
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 20% vs Vesely 60%
Vesely
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 30% vs Vesely 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny -4 · Vesely +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vesely) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 2.20 / Vesely 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Vesely)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047765
Trefny2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 17 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Vesely1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 25 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTrefny1wins
AwayVesely1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTrefnyVeselyT − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.045.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 72 vs 63 / 11044.4%57.3%32 / 72 vs 63 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeselyTrefny 2.20/Vesely 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Vesely · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vesely won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 3 · 13:30J. Trefny—111462113M. Vesely—812111162
LAug 3 · 10:00J. Trefny—118871M. Vesely—91111113
J. Trefny10
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110
M. Vesely10
WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141WAug 26 · 12:58M. Vesely1.5771111113M. Vedmoch2.25118891WAug 26 · 12:30M. Vesely1.671111113M. Vedmoch2.109970LAug 26 · 11:00M. Vesely1.9166111132J. Stolfa1.80111184113LAug 26 · 10:00D. Tuma1.7311118113M. Vesely2.00371181LAug 25 · 02:58M. Vesely1.809360D. Tuma1.911111113LAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely2.20115111142F. Just1.61911137113LAug 25 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke1.91131110113M. Vesely1.801181281
Upcoming Matches
J. Trefny
M. Vesely
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