TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001153
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Vesely
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111113117411
Frantisek Just
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Just to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vesely above · Frantisek Just below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Frantisek Just at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vesely 1–2 Frantisek Just Michal Vesely has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:49What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Just
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesely 1585 vs Just 1556
Vesely
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesely 40% vs Just 20%
Vesely
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesely 50% vs Just 30%
Vesely
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesely -1 · Just -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Just)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Just form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesely 2.20 / Just 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Just)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13001153
Vesely2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog56% won 15 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back43% 6 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Just1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 61 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVesely1wins
AwayJust2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderJust leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesely1Just2n = 3Just took 2 of 3
S2Vesely1Just2n = 3Just took 2 of 3
S3Vesely1Just2n = 3Just took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricVeselyJustV − JBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.042.0−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeselyJustBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 103 vs 184 / 36857.3%50%59 / 103 vs 184 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JustVesely 2.20/Just 1.61
Hit
What we said
54%
Just · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Just won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely—115111142F. Just—911137113
WAug 7 · 13:28M. Vesely—611113113F. Just—11681162
LAug 7 · 11:00M. Vesely—7590F. Just—1111113
M. Vesely10
WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 11:30J. Trefny2.20111111572M. Vesely1.61137911113WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141WAug 26 · 12:58M. Vesely1.5771111113M. Vedmoch2.25118891WAug 26 · 12:30M. Vesely1.671111113M. Vedmoch2.109970LAug 26 · 11:00M. Vesely1.9166111132J. Stolfa1.80111184113LAug 26 · 10:00D. Tuma1.7311118113M. Vesely2.00371181LAug 25 · 02:58M. Vesely1.809360D. Tuma1.911111113LAug 25 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke1.91131110113M. Vesely1.801181281
F. Just10
WSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760WSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LAug 25 · 02:30F. Just2.385780D. Tuma1.531111113LAug 25 · 24:00F. Just1.833730R. Krejci1.831111113LAug 24 · 23:00A. Hlawatschke2.3871111113F. Just1.53115791WAug 21 · 16:59J. Stolfa2.505380F. Just1.501111113LAug 21 · 16:30F. Just1.449870J. Stolfa2.631111113LAug 21 · 15:00F. Just3.506660M. Sobisek1.281111113
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