TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12479590
Played Aug 24Finished
Ales Hlawatschke
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115117119––
Frantisek Just
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Hlawatschke to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Hlawatschke above · Frantisek Just below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ales Hlawatschke at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ales Hlawatschke 7–8 Frantisek Just Ales Hlawatschke has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Just
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hlawatschke 1562 vs Just 1558
Hlawatschke
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hlawatschke 80% vs Just 40%
Hlawatschke
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hlawatschke 50% vs Just 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hlawatschke +3 · Just +1
Hlawatschke
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Just) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Just form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHlawatschke 2.38 / Just 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Just)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12479590
Hlawatschke2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 11 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Just1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 61 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHlawatschke5wins
AwayJust5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHlawatschke66.7%2 of 3
AwayJust57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hlawatschke3Just7n = 10Just took 7 of 10
S2Hlawatschke4Just6n = 10Just took 6 of 10
S3Hlawatschke4Just6n = 10Just took 6 of 10
S4Hlawatschke4Just1n = 5Hlawatschke took 4 of 5
S5Hlawatschke2Just1n = 3Hlawatschke took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHlawatschkeJustH − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.536.0−1.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHlawatschkeJustBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 209 vs 183 / 36650.2%50%105 / 209 vs 183 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JustHlawatschke 2.38/Just 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Just · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hlawatschke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 23:00A. Hlawatschke—71111113F. Just—115791
WApr 30 · 03:00A. Hlawatschke—91111113F. Just—118751
LApr 29 · 22:30A. Hlawatschke—12760F. Just—1411113
LApr 1 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke—116101142F. Just—711127113
LJan 29 · 02:30A. Hlawatschke—45100F. Just—1111123
WJan 7 · 04:01A. Hlawatschke—1111113F. Just—8540
LJan 7 · 03:30A. Hlawatschke—5370F. Just—1111113
WDec 2 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke—1210118123F. Just—1012411102
WOct 10 · 12:00A. Hlawatschke—913913113F. Just—1111111152
LOct 8 · 03:00A. Hlawatschke—9570F. Just—1111113
A. Hlawatschke10
WAug 25 · 03:28A. Hlawatschke1.3671111113R. Krejci3.00118981WAug 25 · 02:00R. Krejci3.25139111332A. Hlawatschke1.331111915113WAug 25 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke1.91131110113M. Vesely1.801181281WAug 24 · 22:00D. Tuma2.001341061A. Hlawatschke1.73111112113WAug 18 · 03:28T. Janata1.539711111A. Hlawatschke2.3811117133WAug 18 · 02:30A. Hlawatschke1.501111133M. Nohejl2.5096110LAug 18 · 01:30M. Vesely1.91913148113A. Hlawatschke1.801111121192WAug 18 · 24:00A. Hlawatschke1.3371111123R. Krejci3.251169101LAug 17 · 23:00T. Janata1.53911118113A. Hlawatschke2.3811771152LAug 14 · 03:00P. Pycha1.8311116113A. Hlawatschke1.83391111
F. Just10
WSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760WSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LAug 25 · 02:30F. Just2.385780D. Tuma1.531111113WAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely2.20115111142F. Just1.61911137113LAug 25 · 24:00F. Just1.833730R. Krejci1.831111113WAug 21 · 16:59J. Stolfa2.505380F. Just1.501111113LAug 21 · 16:30F. Just1.449870J. Stolfa2.631111113LAug 21 · 15:00F. Just3.506660M. Sobisek1.281111113
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