TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465812
Played Aug 21Finished
Frantisek Just
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811711––––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Just to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Just above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Frantisek Just at 61.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Just 5–2 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Just
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Just
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Just 1570 vs Stolfa 1590
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Just 20% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Just 40% vs Stolfa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Just -2 · Stolfa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Just)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJust 1.44 / Stolfa 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Just)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12465812
Just1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 62 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Stolfa2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 41 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back39% 17 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJust5wins
AwayStolfa2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderJust leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJust100%4 of 4
AwayStolfa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Just4Stolfa3n = 7Just took 4 of 7
S2Just4Stolfa3n = 7Just took 4 of 7
S3Just6Stolfa1n = 7Just took 6 of 7
S4Just0Stolfa4n = 4Stolfa took 4 of 4
S5Just3Stolfa1n = 4Just took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJustStolfaJ − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.435.4+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJustStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 373 vs 190 / 36550.9%52.1%190 / 373 vs 190 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JustJust 1.44/Stolfa 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.5%
Just · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 21 · 16:59F. Just—1111113J. Stolfa—5380
LAug 21 · 16:30F. Just—9870J. Stolfa—1111113
WAug 19 · 10:00F. Just—119116133J. Stolfa—811611112
WAug 16 · 19:30F. Just—5141110103J. Stolfa—111251292
WAug 8 · 14:30F. Just—1112113J. Stolfa—71050
LAug 7 · 12:00F. Just—51111952J. Stolfa—117211113
WDec 13 · 16:30F. Just—115116113J. Stolfa—81171122
F. Just10
WSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760WSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LAug 25 · 02:30F. Just2.385780D. Tuma1.531111113WAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely2.20115111142F. Just1.61911137113LAug 25 · 24:00F. Just1.833730R. Krejci1.831111113LAug 24 · 23:00A. Hlawatschke2.3871111113F. Just1.53115791WAug 21 · 16:59J. Stolfa2.505380F. Just1.501111113LAug 21 · 15:00F. Just3.506660M. Sobisek1.281111113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LAug 21 · 16:59J. Stolfa2.505380F. Just1.501111113
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