TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13011645
Played Aug 26Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113117811118––
Michal Vesely
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:56 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 58.2%
70 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 2–2 Michal Vesely Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1590 vs Vesely 1560
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 40% vs Vesely 20%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 60% vs Vesely 40%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +2 · Vesely -3
Vesely
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesely form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.73 / Vesely 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tuma)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13011645
Tuma1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 149 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 145
Vesely2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 16 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back43% 6 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTuma2wins
AwayVesely2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma2Vesely2n = 4split evenly
S2Tuma2Vesely2n = 4split evenly
S3Tuma2Vesely2n = 4split evenly
S4Tuma1Vesely2n = 3Vesely took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTumaVeselyT − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.037.2+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime766 / 1474 vs 59 / 10452%56.7%766 / 1474 vs 59 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.73/Vesely 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 25 · 02:58D. Tuma—1111113M. Vesely—9360
LAug 24 · 23:30D. Tuma—881151M. Vesely—11119113
WAug 20 · 09:30D. Tuma—138912113M. Vesely—1111111062
LAug 20 · 06:30D. Tuma—911861M. Vesely—11711113
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152
M. Vesely10
WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 11:30J. Trefny2.20111111572M. Vesely1.61137911113WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141WAug 26 · 12:58M. Vesely1.5771111113M. Vedmoch2.25118891WAug 26 · 12:30M. Vesely1.671111113M. Vedmoch2.109970LAug 26 · 11:00M. Vesely1.9166111132J. Stolfa1.80111184113LAug 25 · 02:58M. Vesely1.809360D. Tuma1.911111113LAug 25 · 01:30M. Vesely2.20115111142F. Just1.61911137113LAug 25 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke1.91131110113M. Vesely1.801181281
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