TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126077
Played Sep 14Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911114119119
Michal Vesely
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 55.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 2–1 Michal Vesely Michal Vesely has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1518 vs Vesely 1573
Vesely
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 0% vs Vesely 20%
Vesely
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 10% vs Vesely 60%
Vesely
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -5 · Vesely +1
Zmuda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zmuda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesely form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.67 / Vesely 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zmuda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126077
Zmuda1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Vesely2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZmuda2wins
AwayVesely1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderZmuda leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVesely33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda0Vesely3n = 3Vesely took 3 of 3
S2Zmuda2Vesely1n = 3Zmuda took 2 of 3
S3Zmuda2Vesely1n = 3Zmuda took 2 of 3
S4Zmuda3Vesely0n = 3Zmuda took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZmudaVeselyZ − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match44.042.3+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 244 vs 66 / 11852.5%55.9%128 / 244 vs 66 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.67/Vesely 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 14 · 07:00P. Zmuda47591111113M. Vesely4411114992
LAug 12 · 14:30P. Zmuda44311811112M. Vesely49117117133
WJul 13 · 06:30P. Zmuda4171211113M. Vesely341110671
P. Zmuda10
LSep 14 · 06:00J. Stolfa1.83711116123P. Zmuda1.83119911102LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191
M. Vesely10
WSep 14 · 06:30M. Vesely2.25971211133V. Cermak1.571111107112LSep 10 · 08:58T. Vinter1.7311711123M. Vesely2.002116101LSep 10 · 08:30T. Vinter2.0011811113M. Vesely1.73511641LSep 10 · 07:30M. Vesely2.00118111072J. Stolfa1.73711912113LSep 10 · 06:30J. Svoboda1.7311811113M. Vesely2.00811681WAug 31 · 13:29M. Vesely1.40117116143M. Vedmoch2.75511711122WAug 31 · 12:00M. Vesely1.801111153M. Vedmoch1.9177130WAug 31 · 11:30J. Trefny2.20111111572M. Vesely1.61137911113WAug 31 · 10:00M. Vesely2.2013711163D. Tuma1.6111119141WAug 26 · 12:58M. Vesely1.5771111113M. Vedmoch2.25118891
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