TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105111
Played Sep 11Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101281111912101113
Matej Volf
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMatej Volf to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Matej Volf below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 107 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Matej Volf at 54.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 12–22 Matej Volf Vladimir Cermak has won 12 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Volf
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-22 in 34
Volf
Correct
gap of 10 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1516 vs Volf 1535
Volf
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 40% vs Volf 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 40% vs Volf 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +2 · Volf -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Volf)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volf form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.00 / Volf 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Volf)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105111
Cermak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Volf1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 38 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 30 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak5wins
AwayVolf5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak66.7%4 of 6
AwayVolf75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak6Volf4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Cermak5Volf5n = 10split evenly
S3Cermak6Volf4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Cermak2Volf7n = 9Volf took 7 of 9
S5Cermak3Volf2n = 5Cermak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakVolfC − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.2+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakVolfBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1070 vs 207 / 40351%51.4%546 / 1070 vs 207 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolfCermak 2.00/Volf 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Volf · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 23:30V. Cermak—1111113M. Volf—8860
LJul 23 · 13:30V. Cermak—11813752M. Volf—5111111113
LJul 23 · 11:30V. Cermak—711871M. Volf—11511113
WJul 23 · 06:30V. Cermak—1011118113M. Volf—12851132
WJul 20 · 24:00V. Cermak—11511113M. Volf—611681
LJul 8 · 18:30V. Cermak—371191M. Volf—11118113
WJun 12 · 10:30V. Cermak—1112710133M. Volf—5101112112
LJun 12 · 07:00V. Cermak—161091262M. Volf—14121110113
LJun 8 · 02:00V. Cermak—591191M. Volf—11118113
WJun 7 · 18:00V. Cermak—111295113M. Volf—810111142
V. Cermak10
WSep 10 · 23:00V. Cermak2.635111012113M. Sobisek1.44115121052WSep 10 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.7551141352V. Cermak1.401161111113LSep 10 · 03:28J. Hradecky1.441112113V. Cermak2.6371060LSep 10 · 01:30V. Cermak2.6341451162J. Hradecky1.441112117113LSep 10 · 24:30D. Kouble1.7313811113V. Cermak2.001111781WSep 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch3.009111281V. Cermak1.36111310113WSep 9 · 22:30V. Cermak3.5012411113A. Hlawatschke1.281011561LSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113LSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420LSep 8 · 23:30D. Tuma2.10115911113V. Cermak1.6781111952
M. Volf10
LSep 10 · 23:30M. Vedmoch2.2581212113M. Volf1.5711101081LSep 10 · 22:30M. Volf1.91111110862M. Vizek1.80841211113WSep 10 · 20:58M. Volf2.3811911113J. Stolfa1.53511581LSep 10 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.7391111113M. Volf2.00117751WSep 10 · 19:00K. Kapras1.73111111272M. Volf2.00371311113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Volf2.25411261M. Sobisek1.5711811113LSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113
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