TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12325355
Played Jul 30Finished
Jan Muska
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111311911118611
Jiri Babinek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Babinek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Muska above · Jiri Babinek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 98 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Babinek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jan Muska 1–2 Jiri Babinek Jan Muska has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Babinek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muska 1570 vs Babinek 1649
Babinek
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muska 20% vs Babinek 60%
Babinek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muska 30% vs Babinek 70%
Babinek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muska +1 · Babinek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Muska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muska form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuska 1.83 / Babinek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Muska)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12325355
Muska1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Babinek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMuska1wins
AwayBabinek2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderBabinek leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muska1Babinek2n = 3Babinek took 2 of 3
S2Muska2Babinek1n = 3Muska took 2 of 3
S3Muska1Babinek2n = 3Babinek took 2 of 3
S4Muska2Babinek1n = 3Muska took 2 of 3
S5Muska1Babinek2n = 3Babinek took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMuskaBabinekM − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.045.7−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuskaBabinekBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 54 vs 101 / 20742.6%48.8%23 / 54 vs 101 / 207Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaMuska 1.83/Babinek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Babinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 21 · 13:45J. Muska—11551192J. Babinek—811116113
LJul 21 · 10:35J. Muska—511111112J. Babinek—117411133
WJul 5 · 12:35J. Muska—711911113J. Babinek—11711692
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672WAug 19 · 12:35J. Muska1.531211113M. Holub2.3810940
J. Babinek10
WJul 30 · 13:38T. Trnka1.67671171J. Babinek2.1011119113WJul 30 · 11:35R. Vosyka1.80117791J. Babinek1.9181111113LJul 30 · 10:35J. Babinek1.8048100T. Trnka1.911111123WJul 24 · 13:05J. Babinek1.401111113R. Fitl2.755660LJul 24 · 12:05J. Joksch1.8011118123J. Babinek1.915311101WJul 24 · 11:35R. Fitl2.3881480J. Babinek1.531116113LJul 24 · 10:35J. Babinek1.911141112102R. Vosyka1.80711614123WJul 21 · 13:45J. Babinek1.83811116113J. Muska1.8311551192WJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek2.00411118113R. Vosyka1.7311771172WJul 21 · 11:05J. Joksch1.91711111182J. Babinek1.80111389113
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