TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12277036
Played Jul 21Finished
Jiri Babinek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115115611119
Jan Muska
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Babinek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Babinek above · Jan Muska below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Babinek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Babinek 1–1 Jan Muska Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Muska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Babinek 1651 vs Muska 1625
Babinek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Babinek 60% vs Muska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Babinek 40% vs Muska 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Babinek +3 · Muska +2
Babinek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Muska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBabinek 1.83 / Muska 1.83
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Muska)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12277036
Babinek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Muska1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBabinek1wins
AwayMuska1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBabinekMuskaB − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match45.044.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBabinekMuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 200 vs 20 / 4348.5%46.5%97 / 200 vs 20 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuskaBabinek 1.83/Muska 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Muska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Babinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 21 · 10:35J. Babinek—117411133J. Muska—511111112
LJul 5 · 12:35J. Babinek—11711692J. Muska—711911113
J. Babinek10
WJul 30 · 13:38T. Trnka1.67671171J. Babinek2.1011119113WJul 30 · 12:05J. Muska1.8371391162J. Babinek1.831111118113WJul 30 · 11:35R. Vosyka1.80117791J. Babinek1.9181111113LJul 30 · 10:35J. Babinek1.8048100T. Trnka1.911111123WJul 24 · 13:05J. Babinek1.401111113R. Fitl2.755660LJul 24 · 12:05J. Joksch1.8011118123J. Babinek1.915311101WJul 24 · 11:35R. Fitl2.3881480J. Babinek1.531116113LJul 24 · 10:35J. Babinek1.911141112102R. Vosyka1.80711614123WJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek2.00411118113R. Vosyka1.7311771172WJul 21 · 11:05J. Joksch1.91711111182J. Babinek1.80111389113
J. Muska10
LAug 27 · 16:35J. Ruzicka2.201211113J. Muska1.6110960WAug 26 · 17:05J. Muska1.7311119113M. Mastera2.00891191WAug 26 · 15:35J. Muska1.73981112113M. Mastera2.00111191082LAug 26 · 14:05D. Lengal1.73661111113J. Muska2.0011118962LAug 25 · 17:40S. Vyskocil1.83114127113J. Muska1.83711101192WAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 15:05J. Muska1.5381111692S. Vyskocil2.38117911113WAug 25 · 14:05J. Muska1.67111147113P. Chvatal2.1095111182WAug 19 · 13:04J. Muska1.361191114113M. Holub3.0041151672LJul 30 · 12:05J. Muska1.8371391162J. Babinek1.831111118113
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