TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12291131
Played Jul 24Finished
Jiri Babinek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11741111612141012
Radek Vosyka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Vosyka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Babinek above · Radek Vosyka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 98 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Radek Vosyka at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Babinek 13–10 Radek Vosyka Radek Vosyka has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:52What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vosyka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Babinek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Babinek 1661 vs Vosyka 1582
Babinek
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Babinek 80% vs Vosyka 60%
Babinek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Babinek 40% vs Vosyka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Babinek +4 · Vosyka -1
Babinek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Babinek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Babinek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBabinek 1.91 / Vosyka 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Babinek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12291131
Babinek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Vosyka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 53 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 40 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBabinek5wins
AwayVosyka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBabinek60%3 of 5
AwayVosyka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Babinek5Vosyka5n = 10split evenly
S2Babinek5Vosyka5n = 10split evenly
S3Babinek4Vosyka6n = 10Vosyka took 6 of 10
S4Babinek4Vosyka4n = 8split evenly
S5Babinek3Vosyka2n = 5Babinek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBabinekVosykaB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.441.0−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBabinekVosykaBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 201 vs 140 / 27948.8%50.2%98 / 201 vs 140 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BabinekBabinek 1.91/Vosyka 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Babinek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vosyka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek—411118113R. Vosyka—11771172
WJun 20 · 14:05J. Babinek—117411113R. Vosyka—91111952
LJun 18 · 21:25J. Babinek—1011731R. Vosyka—12911113
LJun 18 · 19:35J. Babinek—141188162R. Vosyka—1271111183
LMay 6 · 10:35J. Babinek—7890R. Vosyka—1111113
WMay 4 · 11:35J. Babinek—51111133R. Vosyka—1186111
LApr 27 · 21:10J. Babinek—512111182R. Vosyka—111496113
LApr 27 · 20:35J. Babinek—119991R. Vosyka—71111113
WApr 1 · 13:05J. Babinek—114811113R. Vosyka—81111742
WApr 1 · 11:05J. Babinek—1111113R. Vosyka—5770
J. Babinek10
WJul 30 · 13:38T. Trnka1.67671171J. Babinek2.1011119113WJul 30 · 12:05J. Muska1.8371391162J. Babinek1.831111118113WJul 30 · 11:35R. Vosyka1.80117791J. Babinek1.9181111113LJul 30 · 10:35J. Babinek1.8048100T. Trnka1.911111123WJul 24 · 13:05J. Babinek1.401111113R. Fitl2.755660LJul 24 · 12:05J. Joksch1.8011118123J. Babinek1.915311101WJul 24 · 11:35R. Fitl2.3881480J. Babinek1.531116113WJul 21 · 13:45J. Babinek1.83811116113J. Muska1.8311551192WJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek2.00411118113R. Vosyka1.7311771172WJul 21 · 11:05J. Joksch1.91711111182J. Babinek1.80111389113
R. Vosyka10
LSep 10 · 13:38R. Vosyka1.578480J. Ruzicka2.251111113LSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113WSep 10 · 11:05M. Holub1.801011112132R. Vosyka1.91126911153WSep 10 · 10:35J. Ruzicka2.105480R. Vosyka1.661111113LSep 8 · 17:39R. Fitl2.001211113R. Vosyka1.7310970LSep 8 · 16:05R. Vosyka1.5710121171R. Fitl2.2512147113WSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670WSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182LJul 30 · 11:35R. Vosyka1.80117791J. Babinek1.9181111113LJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek2.00411118113R. Vosyka1.7311771172
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