TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12294490
Played Jul 24Finished
Jiri Babinek
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116116––––
Radek Fitl
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Babinek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Babinek above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jiri Babinek at 61.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Babinek 2–0 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Babinek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Babinek 1648 vs Fitl 1467
Babinek
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Babinek 60% vs Fitl 20%
Babinek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Babinek 50% vs Fitl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Babinek -1 · Fitl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Babinek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBabinek 1.40 / Fitl 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Babinek)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12294490
Babinek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 18 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Fitl2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBabinek2wins
AwayFitl0wins
Babinek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBabinekFitlB − FBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.523.5+12.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBabinekFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 205 vs 95 / 18748.8%50.8%100 / 205 vs 95 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BabinekBabinek 1.40/Fitl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Babinek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Babinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 24 · 13:05J. Babinek—1111113R. Fitl—5660
WJul 24 · 11:35J. Babinek—1116113R. Fitl—81480
J. Babinek10
WJul 30 · 13:38T. Trnka1.67671171J. Babinek2.1011119113WJul 30 · 12:05J. Muska1.8371391162J. Babinek1.831111118113WJul 30 · 11:35R. Vosyka1.80117791J. Babinek1.9181111113LJul 30 · 10:35J. Babinek1.8048100T. Trnka1.911111123LJul 24 · 12:05J. Joksch1.8011118123J. Babinek1.915311101WJul 24 · 11:35R. Fitl2.3881480J. Babinek1.531116113LJul 24 · 10:35J. Babinek1.911141112102R. Vosyka1.80711614123WJul 21 · 13:45J. Babinek1.83811116113J. Muska1.8311551192WJul 21 · 12:35J. Babinek2.00411118113R. Vosyka1.7311771172WJul 21 · 11:05J. Joksch1.91711111182J. Babinek1.80111389113
R. Fitl10
WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 8 · 17:39R. Fitl2.001211113R. Vosyka1.7310970WSep 8 · 16:05R. Vosyka1.5710121171R. Fitl2.2512147113WSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113WSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LJul 24 · 11:35R. Fitl2.3881480J. Babinek1.531116113
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