TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12314635
Played Jul 28Finished
Karel Baros
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611711––––
David Osvald
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Osvald to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Baros above · David Osvald below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held David Osvald at 57.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 0–2 David Osvald Karel Baros has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baros 1471 vs Osvald 1505
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Osvald 20%
Baros
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 40% vs Osvald 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +1 · Osvald -3
Osvald
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Osvald)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.50 / Osvald 1.50
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Osvald)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12314635
Baros2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 15 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Osvald1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 36 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaros0wins
AwayOsvald2wins
Osvald leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricBarosOsvaldB − OBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match24.537.5−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 224 vs 82 / 15654.9%52.6%123 / 224 vs 82 / 156Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldBaros 2.50/Osvald 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 25 · 15:40K. Baros—8920D. Osvald—1111113
LJun 16 · 14:15K. Baros—811741D. Osvald—11911113
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791
D. Osvald10
LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113LSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113LAug 12 · 13:20D. Branny1.8011811123D. Osvald1.914117101LAug 12 · 12:15D. Branny1.8311138113D. Osvald1.838111151WAug 12 · 11:15D. Osvald1.831111113J. Przybyla1.839540WAug 12 · 09:45M. Raska1.83713881D. Osvald1.83111111113LJul 28 · 17:15D. Osvald2.0397111152L. Dzida1.65111175113WJul 28 · 16:15D. Osvald1.911111123J. Volny1.8058100LJul 28 · 14:15L. Dzida1.7351111113D. Osvald2.00118371LJul 22 · 16:59D. Osvald1.6186110T. Lysek2.201111133
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