TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12316020
Played Jul 28Finished
David Osvald
Home
2.03
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911711117115511
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Osvald above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H David Osvald 0–2 Lukas Dzida David Osvald has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1529 vs Dzida 1573
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 40% vs Dzida 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 40% vs Dzida 60%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +2 · Dzida -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 2.03 / Dzida 1.65
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dzida)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12316020
Osvald2.03
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog64% won 14 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back43% 3 of 7
Dzida1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 18 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it58% 11 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOsvald0wins
AwayDzida2wins
Dzida leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOsvaldDzidaO − DBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.038.5−9.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 158 vs 63 / 11153.2%56.8%84 / 158 vs 63 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaOsvald 2.03/Dzida 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.2%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 28 · 14:15D. Osvald—118371L. Dzida—51111113
LMay 28 · 14:15D. Osvald—51590L. Dzida—1117113
D. Osvald10
LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113LSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113LAug 12 · 13:20D. Branny1.8011811123D. Osvald1.914117101LAug 12 · 12:15D. Branny1.8311138113D. Osvald1.838111151WAug 12 · 11:15D. Osvald1.831111113J. Przybyla1.839540WAug 12 · 09:45M. Raska1.83713881D. Osvald1.83111111113WJul 28 · 16:15D. Osvald1.911111123J. Volny1.8058100WJul 28 · 14:45K. Baros2.507670D. Osvald1.501111113LJul 28 · 14:15L. Dzida1.7351111113D. Osvald2.00118371LJul 22 · 16:59D. Osvald1.6186110T. Lysek2.201111133
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991WJul 28 · 14:15L. Dzida1.7351111113D. Osvald2.00118371
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