TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12407304
Played Aug 12Finished
Michal Raska
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111311811811––
David Osvald
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Osvald to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Raska above · David Osvald below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Osvald at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 6–5 David Osvald David Osvald has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1522 vs Osvald 1520
Raska
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 20% vs Osvald 40%
Osvald
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 30% vs Osvald 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -3 · Osvald -1
Raska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Raska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 1.83 / Osvald 1.83
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Raska)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12407304
Raska1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Osvald1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska6wins
AwayOsvald4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRaska leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska66.7%4 of 6
AwayOsvald50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska6Osvald4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Raska4Osvald6n = 10Osvald took 6 of 10
S3Raska6Osvald4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Raska4Osvald4n = 8split evenly
S5Raska3Osvald2n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaOsvaldR − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.3+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 464 vs 84 / 15947.6%52.8%221 / 464 vs 84 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RaskaRaska 1.83/Osvald 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Raska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 17:15M. Raska—211611113D. Osvald—11311832
LJun 16 · 14:45M. Raska—11171172D. Osvald—911116113
LMar 3 · 12:15M. Raska—10690D. Osvald—1211113
WFeb 24 · 12:15M. Raska—1111113D. Osvald—6170
WFeb 24 · 09:55M. Raska—51112113D. Osvald—1191091
WFeb 24 · 09:15M. Raska—1111915113D. Osvald—74111712
LFeb 19 · 10:20M. Raska—11612792D. Osvald—7111011113
WFeb 19 · 09:15M. Raska—119123113D. Osvald—311101182
WFeb 16 · 07:15M. Raska—11411113D. Osvald—411991
LFeb 10 · 13:10M. Raska—811571D. Osvald—111113113
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113
D. Osvald10
LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113LSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113LAug 12 · 13:20D. Branny1.8011811123D. Osvald1.914117101LAug 12 · 12:15D. Branny1.8311138113D. Osvald1.838111151WAug 12 · 11:15D. Osvald1.831111113J. Przybyla1.839540LJul 28 · 17:15D. Osvald2.0397111152L. Dzida1.65111175113WJul 28 · 16:15D. Osvald1.911111123J. Volny1.8058100WJul 28 · 14:45K. Baros2.507670D. Osvald1.501111113LJul 28 · 14:15L. Dzida1.7351111113D. Osvald2.00118371LJul 22 · 16:59D. Osvald1.6186110T. Lysek2.201111133
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