TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12314655
Played Jul 28Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118113117––
David Osvald
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · David Osvald below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 57.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 1–0 David Osvald David Osvald has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1570 vs Osvald 1515
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Osvald 20%
Dzida
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 70% vs Osvald 30%
Dzida
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -2 · Osvald -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Osvald) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.61 / Osvald 2.20
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Osvald)+15.4pp
TT Cup · #12314655
Dzida1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 18 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it58% 11 of 19
Osvald2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog64% won 14 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back43% 3 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDzida1wins
AwayOsvald0wins
Dzida leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDzidaOsvaldD − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.029.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 108 vs 82 / 15556.5%52.9%61 / 108 vs 82 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldDzida 1.61/Osvald 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 28 · 14:15L. Dzida—1117113D. Osvald—51590
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
D. Osvald10
LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113LSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113LAug 12 · 13:20D. Branny1.8011811123D. Osvald1.914117101LAug 12 · 12:15D. Branny1.8311138113D. Osvald1.838111151WAug 12 · 11:15D. Osvald1.831111113J. Przybyla1.839540WAug 12 · 09:45M. Raska1.83713881D. Osvald1.83111111113LJul 28 · 17:15D. Osvald2.0397111152L. Dzida1.65111175113WJul 28 · 16:15D. Osvald1.911111123J. Volny1.8058100WJul 28 · 14:45K. Baros2.507670D. Osvald1.501111113LJul 22 · 16:59D. Osvald1.6186110T. Lysek2.201111133
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