TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12306502
Played Jul 27Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119115––––
Daniil Novakov
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Daniil Novakov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 69.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 4–1 Daniil Novakov Daniil Novakov has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:01What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1398 vs Novakov 1390
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Novakov 80%
Novakov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 50% vs Novakov 80%
Novakov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -1 · Novakov +3
Novakov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Skhabitskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novakov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.44 / Novakov 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12306502
Skhabitskiy1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 104 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it76% 75 of 99
Novakov2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy4wins
AwayNovakov1wins
Skhabitskiy leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovakov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy2Novakov3n = 5Novakov took 3 of 5
S2Skhabitskiy3Novakov2n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
S3Skhabitskiy3Novakov2n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
S4Skhabitskiy4Novakov0n = 4Skhabitskiy took 4 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home480%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyNovakovS − NBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.631.8+6.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyNovakovBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 1106 vs 122 / 26344.1%46.4%488 / 1106 vs 122 / 263Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiySkhabitskiy 1.44/Novakov 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 24 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy4181111113D. Novakov31115961
WJul 19 · 15:40S. Skhabitskiy3811511113D. Novakov26511731
LJul 16 · 12:05S. Skhabitskiy31101470D. Novakov391216113
WJun 18 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy4381113113D. Novakov311171121
WJun 11 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy4011117113D. Novakov32791151
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novakov2.6311860M. Stetsenko1.441311113WAug 2 · 14:30D. Novakov2.501111123A. Kurtenko1.5067100LAug 2 · 12:30D. Novakov3.40101180O. Ovsiienko1.301213113WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091WJul 27 · 08:20D. Novakov2.0011711113V. Smyk1.73811791LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113WJul 24 · 11:00V. Stukalov1.83911761D. Novakov1.8311811113
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