TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12290190
Played Jul 24Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118711611––
Daniil Novakov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniil Novakov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Daniil Novakov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Daniil Novakov at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 21–17 Daniil Novakov Daniil Novakov has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Novakov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Stukalov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1248 vs Novakov 1349
Novakov
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Novakov 80%
Novakov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Novakov 80%
Novakov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Novakov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novakov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novakov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.83 / Novakov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novakov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12290190
Stukalov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Novakov1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov5wins
AwayNovakov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov83.3%5 of 6
AwayNovakov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov6Novakov4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov4Novakov6n = 10Novakov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov6Novakov4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov3Novakov3n = 6split evenly
S5Stukalov2Novakov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovNovakovS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.8−1.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovNovakovBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 779 vs 118 / 25850.5%45.7%393 / 779 vs 118 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakovStukalov 1.83/Novakov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Novakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 14:40V. Stukalov4571191172D. Novakov49119117113
WJul 13 · 11:00V. Stukalov491151012113D. Novakov47911121052
WJul 10 · 05:00V. Stukalov351212113D. Novakov24101040
LJul 8 · 08:00V. Stukalov26118611D. Novakov3851111113
WJul 5 · 16:40V. Stukalov331111113D. Novakov226790
WJun 27 · 04:30V. Stukalov341111123D. Novakov2688100
LJun 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov25112120D. Novakov381311143
LJun 8 · 08:00V. Stukalov33871171D. Novakov3911116113
WJun 6 · 08:35V. Stukalov44118113113D. Novakov4271171162
LJun 4 · 11:35V. Stukalov44831211102D. Novakov531111109123
V. Stukalov10
LSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113LSep 13 · 09:35V. Stukalov1.9111510V. Kucheriavyi1.801311113LSep 13 · 08:05V. Stukalov1.836850S. Semenets1.831111113LSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113WSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592LSep 11 · 11:05O. Miklukha2.25111111113V. Stukalov1.57613421LSep 11 · 10:05V. Stukalov2.25911871O. Mytsyk1.5711911113LSep 11 · 09:05V. Stukalov2.63281121V. Korniichuk1.4411119113WSep 11 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.38111111113K. Riazanovskyi1.53413581LSep 11 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.63411118102D. Khavanskyi1.44115811123
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novakov2.6311860M. Stetsenko1.441311113WAug 2 · 14:30D. Novakov2.501111123A. Kurtenko1.5067100LAug 2 · 12:30D. Novakov3.40101180O. Ovsiienko1.301213113LJul 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113D. Novakov2.634950WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091WJul 27 · 08:20D. Novakov2.0011711113V. Smyk1.73811791LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.