TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12348068
Played Aug 2Finished
Daniil Novakov
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113811611––––
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniil Novakov above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 66.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Novakov 12–18 Maksym Stetsenko Daniil Novakov has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Stetsenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novakov 1376 vs Stetsenko 1435
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novakov 60% vs Stetsenko 40%
Novakov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novakov 60% vs Stetsenko 40%
Novakov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novakov +1 · Stetsenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovakov 2.63 / Stetsenko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Stetsenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12348068
Novakov2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Stetsenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 123 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it100% 70 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it91% 96 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovakov2wins
AwayStetsenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakov66.7%2 of 3
AwayStetsenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novakov3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S2Novakov4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Novakov2Stetsenko8n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S4Novakov2Stetsenko3n = 5Stetsenko took 3 of 5
S5Novakov1Stetsenko2n = 3Stetsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakovStetsenkoN − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.038.5−5.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakovStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 266 vs 439 / 83146.2%52.8%123 / 266 vs 439 / 831Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoNovakov 2.63/Stetsenko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov213990M. Stetsenko331111113
LJul 10 · 11:30D. Novakov215880M. Stetsenko331111113
LJun 27 · 06:30D. Novakov259790M. Stetsenko331111113
LJun 18 · 12:05D. Novakov4213114141M. Stetsenko5115911163
LJun 11 · 05:05D. Novakov219480M. Stetsenko331111113
LJun 8 · 11:30D. Novakov47111171172M. Stetsenko46831113113
WJun 4 · 10:35D. Novakov331111113M. Stetsenko219930
LJun 1 · 11:30D. Novakov44911212102M. Stetsenko461121110123
LMay 28 · 11:30D. Novakov31971141M. Stetsenko4111118113
WMay 19 · 12:05D. Novakov45114811113M. Stetsenko4891111982
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780WAug 2 · 14:30D. Novakov2.501111123A. Kurtenko1.5067100LAug 2 · 12:30D. Novakov3.40101180O. Ovsiienko1.301213113LJul 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113D. Novakov2.634950WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091WJul 27 · 08:20D. Novakov2.0011711113V. Smyk1.73811791LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113WJul 24 · 11:00V. Stukalov1.83911761D. Novakov1.8311811113
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 13 · 12:30O. Mytsyk2.631011911113M. Stetsenko1.4412111842LSep 10 · 12:50A. Martyniuk1.611111113M. Stetsenko2.208850LSep 10 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.73116571O. Ovsiienko2.0081111113LSep 10 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.731111113M. Stetsenko2.009790LSep 10 · 07:20F. Voinarovskyi1.671114115113M. Stetsenko2.1081671162LSep 10 · 06:20K. Klymenko1.401111113M. Stetsenko2.757870LSep 9 · 18:00M. Stetsenko1.801061191V. Smyk1.9112116113WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:00M. Stetsenko2.208790O. Tymofeev1.611111113WJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Novakov
Nothing scheduled
M. Stetsenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.