TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12306434
Played Jul 27Finished
Daniil Novakov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711117119––
Vasiliy Smyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeDaniil Novakov to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniil Novakov above · Vasiliy Smyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Daniil Novakov at 56.1%
75 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Novakov 1356 vs Smyk 1332
Novakov
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novakov 60% vs Smyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novakov 70% vs Smyk 50%
Novakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novakov -1 · Smyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novakov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovakov 2.00 / Smyk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novakov)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12306434
Novakov2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Smyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 29 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakovSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 260 vs 260 / 61845.8%42.1%119 / 260 vs 260 / 618Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakovNovakov 2.00/Smyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novakov won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novakov2.6311860M. Stetsenko1.441311113WAug 2 · 14:30D. Novakov2.501111123A. Kurtenko1.5067100LAug 2 · 12:30D. Novakov3.40101180O. Ovsiienko1.301213113LJul 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113D. Novakov2.634950WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113WJul 24 · 11:00V. Stukalov1.83911761D. Novakov1.8311811113
V. Smyk10
LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113
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