TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12348095
Played Aug 2Finished
Daniil Novakov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171210––––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniil Novakov above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 57 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 62.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Novakov 1–1 Andrii Kurtenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:10What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novakov 1363 vs Kurtenko 1355
Novakov
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novakov 60% vs Kurtenko 20%
Novakov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novakov 60% vs Kurtenko 30%
Novakov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novakov -2 · Kurtenko -4
Kurtenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kurtenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovakov 2.50 / Kurtenko 1.50
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kurtenko)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12348095
Novakov2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Kurtenko1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 145 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it89% 89 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it78% 112 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovakov1wins
AwayKurtenko1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricNovakovKurtenkoN − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.041.0−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakovKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 265 vs 296 / 57046%51.9%122 / 265 vs 296 / 570Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoNovakov 2.50/Kurtenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJan 17 · 11:35D. Novakov49118117123A. Kurtenko49811911102
LJan 10 · 11:35D. Novakov217950A. Kurtenko331111113
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novakov2.6311860M. Stetsenko1.441311113LAug 2 · 12:30D. Novakov3.40101180O. Ovsiienko1.301213113LJul 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113D. Novakov2.634950WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091WJul 27 · 08:20D. Novakov2.0011711113V. Smyk1.73811791LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113WJul 24 · 11:00V. Stukalov1.83911761D. Novakov1.8311811113
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.831194111S. Solomko1.8341111133LSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921WSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851LSep 12 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.8313119572S. Solomko1.831181111113
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