TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12347952
Played Aug 2Finished
Daniil Novakov
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113811––––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniil Novakov above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 65 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 70.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Novakov 4–14 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Daniil Novakov has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Ovsiienko
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novakov 1376 vs Ovsiienko 1385
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novakov 60% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novakov 70% vs Ovsiienko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novakov -1 · Ovsiienko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ovsiienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novakov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovakov 3.40 / Ovsiienko 1.30
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12347952
Novakov3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Ovsiienko1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 127 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 76 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it84% 102 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovakov3wins
AwayOvsiienko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovakov75%3 of 4
AwayOvsiienko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novakov4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S2Novakov3Ovsiienko7n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S3Novakov2Ovsiienko8n = 10Ovsiienko took 8 of 10
S4Novakov2Ovsiienko4n = 6Ovsiienko took 4 of 6
S5Novakov2Ovsiienko1n = 3Novakov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakovOvsiienkoN − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.738.3−6.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakovOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 264 vs 420 / 81646.2%51.5%122 / 264 vs 420 / 816Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoNovakov 3.40/Ovsiienko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 10:00D. Novakov229760O. Ovsiienko331111113
LJul 10 · 10:00D. Novakov26118521O. Ovsiienko3741111113
LJul 8 · 10:00D. Novakov2412390O. Ovsiienko361411113
LJun 27 · 10:00D. Novakov31751181O. Ovsiienko4211119113
LJun 19 · 05:35D. Novakov174850O. Ovsiienko331111113
WJun 4 · 07:05D. Novakov4311129113O. Ovsiienko355101191
LMay 5 · 06:00D. Novakov153840O. Ovsiienko331111113
LMay 2 · 15:00D. Novakov49861111132O. Ovsiienko51111159153
WApr 27 · 10:35D. Novakov45111166113O. Ovsiienko3995111132
WApr 22 · 10:00D. Novakov45111184113O. Ovsiienko4459111182
D. Novakov10
LAug 2 · 18:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.7311119113D. Novakov2.00951161WAug 2 · 17:00D. Novakov2.001111113D. Ponomarenko1.734780LAug 2 · 16:00D. Novakov2.6311860M. Stetsenko1.441311113WAug 2 · 14:30D. Novakov2.501111123A. Kurtenko1.5067100LJul 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113D. Novakov2.634950WJul 27 · 10:50D. Novakov2.1011411143O. Mytsyk1.677114121WJul 27 · 09:50D. Novakov1.8311912113V. Melnykov1.837111091WJul 27 · 08:20D. Novakov2.0011711113V. Smyk1.73811791LJul 27 · 06:20D. Novakov2.503990M. Stetsenko1.501111113WJul 24 · 11:00V. Stukalov1.83911761D. Novakov1.8311811113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 13 · 12:00A. Dekhtiarenko2.2581113121O. Ovsiienko1.57111311133WSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.73116571O. Ovsiienko2.0081111113WSep 10 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.386810O. Ovsiienko1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162LSep 10 · 05:50F. Voinarovskyi1.531111122123O. Ovsiienko2.38251411102WSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112LSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190
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