TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12167817
Played Jul 6Finished
Sergio Carrillo
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118611911––
Luis Kraus
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingSergio Carrillo above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11
75 points played in total.
H2H Sergio Carrillo 1–0 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kraus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCarrillo 2.63 / Kraus 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Kraus)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12167817
Carrillo2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kraus1.44
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCarrillo1wins
AwayKraus0wins
Carrillo leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCarrilloKrausC − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.031.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCarrilloKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 8 vs 76 / 21225%35.9%2 / 8 vs 76 / 212Avg sets wonper match1.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match26.231.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausCarrillo 2.63/Kraus 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 29 · 07:30S. Carrillo—11118113L. Kraus—571181
S. Carrillo10
LJul 7 · 08:00S. Carrillo8.0081111582K. Fadeev1.06117511113WJul 6 · 17:00S. Carrillo6.5012111310123E. Mendes1.101491112102WJul 6 · 15:00S. Carrillo2.2071112113S. Happek1.611171091LJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 10:30S. Carrillo7.0091780D. Rinderer1.081119113LJul 6 · 06:30S. Carrillo1.521131281T. Saltzer2.30131110113LJun 30 · 08:30O. Kosolosky1.081111113S. Carrillo7.006240LJun 29 · 17:00D. Rinderer1.071111113S. Carrillo7.509130LJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo8.0010530K. Fadeev1.061211113LJun 29 · 13:00S. Carrillo1.5726110A. Itagaki2.251111133
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113
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