TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357985
Played Aug 6Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71117151175111311
Luis Kraus
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 108 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 74.7%
108 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 9–1 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Fadeev
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1743 vs Kraus 1493
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 60% vs Kraus 80%
Kraus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 60% vs Kraus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev +2 · Kraus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.14 / Kraus 5.00
Signal prob.90% / 10%
Edge (Fadeev)+8.8pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357985
Fadeev1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kraus5.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFadeev9wins
AwayKraus1wins
Fadeev leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFadeev100%7 of 7
AwayKraus33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fadeev7Kraus3n = 10Fadeev took 7 of 10
S2Fadeev10Kraus0n = 10Fadeev took 10 of 10
S3Fadeev9Kraus1n = 10Fadeev took 9 of 10
S4Fadeev2Kraus1n = 3Fadeev took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFadeevKrausF − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.424.2+11.2per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 150 vs 90 / 23869.3%37.8%104 / 150 vs 90 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.41.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.331.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.14/Kraus 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.2%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 6 · 07:00K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—7950
WJun 29 · 09:00K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—4550
LJun 15 · 14:30K. Fadeev—1111861L. Kraus—13811113
WMay 18 · 13:30K. Fadeev—101111113L. Kraus—124841
WFeb 17 · 11:30K. Fadeev—1113123L. Kraus—711100
WFeb 16 · 08:00K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—4780
WSep 16 · 08:30K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—6660
WJul 28 · 08:30K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—6480
WJul 4 · 11:00K. Fadeev—1111113L. Kraus—7480
WJul 3 · 07:00K. Fadeev—81111113L. Kraus—116891
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
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