TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13058413
Played Sep 1Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
31112101111012117
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 1–2 Karl Zimmermann Kirill Fadeev has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Zimmermann
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1679 vs Zimmermann 1645
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 60% vs Zimmermann 40%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 40% vs Zimmermann 60%
Zimmermann
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev -2 · Zimmermann -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 2.00 / Zimmermann 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zimmermann)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13058413
Fadeev2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
Zimmermann1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFadeev1wins
AwayZimmermann2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderZimmermann leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fadeev1Zimmermann2n = 3Zimmermann took 2 of 3
S2Fadeev0Zimmermann3n = 3Zimmermann took 3 of 3
S3Fadeev1Zimmermann2n = 3Zimmermann took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricFadeevZimmermannF − ZBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.737.7−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 149 vs 27 / 4666.4%58.7%99 / 149 vs 27 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannFadeev 2.00/Zimmermann 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 31 · 15:30K. Fadeev—361111113K. Zimmermann—11115282
LAug 7 · 09:44K. Fadeev—4930K. Zimmermann—1111113
LAug 7 · 08:00K. Fadeev—1181171K. Zimmermann—81113113
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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