TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034077
Played Aug 31Finished
Mathys Gremillion
Home
7.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–6Last 9Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51112141012––––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.08
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMathys Gremillion to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMathys Gremillion above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 64 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Mathys Gremillion at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Mathys Gremillion 0–1 Kirill Fadeev Mathys Gremillion has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:01What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gremillion 1277 vs Fadeev 1677
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 401 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gremillion 60% vs Fadeev 20%
Gremillion
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gremillion 33% vs Fadeev 50%
Fadeev
Correct
17pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gremillion -2 · Fadeev -4
Fadeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (20%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGremillion 7.00 / Fadeev 1.08
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Fadeev)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034077
Gremillion7.00
33%won 3 of 9 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Fadeev1.08
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGremillion0wins
AwayFadeev1wins
Fadeev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricGremillionFadeevG − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match27.037.0−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGremillionFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 7 vs 99 / 14842.9%66.9%3 / 7 vs 99 / 148Avg sets wonper match1.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match34.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevGremillion 7.00/Fadeev 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.6%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion—512100K. Fadeev—1114123
M. Gremillion10
LSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130LAug 31 · 17:30M. Gremillion—119911122M. Stefanidis—811117143LAug 31 · 16:00S. Almeida—981111113M. Gremillion—11116882LAug 31 · 14:00A. Limonov1.171111113M. Gremillion4.507980LAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113LAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113WMay 15 · 07:30M. Gremillion2.00137311113J. Lama1.73111111862WMay 14 · 16:30M. Gremillion4.501110114113M. Scharrer1.1771261132WMay 14 · 14:28M. Gremillion1.4421111113L. Dreykorn2.63119981LMay 14 · 12:30M. Danzer1.051711113M. Gremillion8.5015740
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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