TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034082
Played Aug 31Finished
Mathys Gremillion
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–5Last 8Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411411115511––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMathys Gremillion above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 62 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 57.0%
62 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Gremillion 1310 vs Zimmermann 1657
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 346 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gremillion 60% vs Zimmermann 80%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gremillion 38% vs Zimmermann 80%
Zimmermann
Correct
43pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gremillion -1 · Zimmermann +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gremillion form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGremillion 3.75 / Zimmermann 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Zimmermann)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034082
Gremillion3.75
38%won 3 of 8 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 4 of 8
Zimmermann1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricGremillionZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 7 vs 23 / 3942.9%59%3 / 7 vs 23 / 39Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.934.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannGremillion 3.75/Zimmermann 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zimmermann won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Gremillion10
LSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130LAug 31 · 17:30M. Gremillion—119911122M. Stefanidis—811117143LAug 31 · 16:00S. Almeida—981111113M. Gremillion—11116882LAug 31 · 14:00A. Limonov1.171111113M. Gremillion4.507980LAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113WMay 15 · 07:30M. Gremillion2.00137311113J. Lama1.73111111862WMay 14 · 16:30M. Gremillion4.501110114113M. Scharrer1.1771261132WMay 14 · 14:28M. Gremillion1.4421111113L. Dreykorn2.63119981LMay 14 · 12:30M. Danzer1.051711113M. Gremillion8.5015740
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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