TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13029334
Played Aug 31Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111311111811––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:10 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 67.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–2 Karl Zimmermann Marius Henninger has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Henninger
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1626 vs Zimmermann 1633
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 20% vs Zimmermann 80%
Zimmermann
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 40% vs Zimmermann 80%
Zimmermann
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger -3 · Zimmermann -1
Henninger
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.80 / Zimmermann 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Henninger)+2.5pp
Challenger Series TT · #13029334
Henninger1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Zimmermann1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayZimmermann2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderZimmermann leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger2Zimmermann1n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
S2Henninger3Zimmermann0n = 3Henninger took 3 of 3
S3Henninger1Zimmermann2n = 3Zimmermann took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHenningerZimmermannH − ZBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match35.034.7+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 96 vs 27 / 4752.1%57.5%50 / 96 vs 27 / 47Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.235.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.80/Zimmermann 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 1 · 10:25M. Henninger—1111113K. Zimmermann—7630
LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger—613181K. Zimmermann—111111113
LJan 22 · 17:30M. Henninger—11115892K. Zimmermann—661111103
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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