TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090015
Played Sep 7Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141012118119––
Vincent Senkbeil
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Vincent Senkbeil below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Marius Henninger at 57.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–2 Vincent Senkbeil Marius Henninger has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1640 vs Senkbeil 1617
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 80% vs Senkbeil 100%
Senkbeil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 60% vs Senkbeil 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger -1 · Senkbeil +5
Senkbeil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Henninger)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senkbeil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.61 / Senkbeil 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Henninger)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090015
Henninger1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Senkbeil2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHenninger1wins
AwaySenkbeil2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSenkbeil leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger1Senkbeil2n = 3Senkbeil took 2 of 3
S2Henninger0Senkbeil3n = 3Senkbeil took 3 of 3
S3Henninger2Senkbeil1n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHenningerSenkbeilH − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.338.0−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerSenkbeilBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 97 vs 19 / 3752.6%51.4%51 / 97 vs 19 / 37Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.61/Senkbeil 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger—111011113V. Senkbeil—412891
LMar 5 · 10:00M. Henninger—4770V. Senkbeil—1111113
LSep 1 · 10:30M. Henninger—751111112V. Senkbeil—111185133
M. Henninger10
LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113LAug 25 · 09:15V. Yefimov1.101111113M. Henninger6.506780
V. Senkbeil10
WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113WMar 6 · 08:00V. Senkbeil1.611112123L. Kraus2.20710100WMar 5 · 16:30D. Zech4.507101331V. Senkbeil1.17111211113WMar 5 · 14:30O. Naplokov2.38311741V. Senkbeil1.5311711113LMar 5 · 13:00R. Turrini1.13111310113V. Senkbeil5.509111221WMar 5 · 10:00M. Henninger1.534770V. Senkbeil2.381111113LMar 5 · 08:00M. Danzer1.2081211113V. Senkbeil4.331110881LSep 26 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.17141112113V. Senkbeil4.501281471WSep 25 · 16:30O. Naplokov1.83911781V. Senkbeil1.8311711113
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