TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13058412
Played Sep 1Finished
Anton Limonov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911111911118
Marius Henninger
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnton Limonov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Limonov above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Anton Limonov at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Anton Limonov 2–0 Marius Henninger Marius Henninger has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Henninger
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Limonov 2049 vs Henninger 1628
Limonov
Correct
both rated, 420 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Limonov 100% vs Henninger 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Limonov 90% vs Henninger 60%
Limonov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Limonov +5 · Henninger +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Limonov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLimonov 1.83 / Henninger 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Limonov)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13058412
Limonov1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Henninger1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLimonov2wins
AwayHenninger0wins
Limonov leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLimonovHenningerL − HBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match48.544.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLimonovHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime14 / 16 vs 50 / 9587.5%52.6%14 / 16 vs 50 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.535.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LimonovLimonov 1.83/Henninger 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Limonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Limonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov—12116113M. Henninger—1081161
WMay 5 · 08:30A. Limonov—111616143M. Henninger—91418121
A. Limonov10
WSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121WSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151WAug 31 · 15:00A. Limonov1.041111113S. Amann9.002860WAug 31 · 14:00A. Limonov1.171111113M. Gremillion4.507980WAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161WAug 31 · 08:30A. Limonov1.3211116113S. Almeida3.00681191WAug 31 · 06:30A. Limonov1.501111113M. Stefanidis2.407850WAug 19 · 14:35T. Preechayan1.83714581A. Limonov1.83111211113LAug 19 · 10:20W. Koehl2.7511116113A. Limonov1.40991191
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113
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