TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034063
Played Sep 1Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.07
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141311113––––
Mathys Gremillion
Away
7.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:08 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMathys Gremillion to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Mathys Gremillion below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 53 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Mathys Gremillion at 60.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Mathys Gremillion Mathys Gremillion has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:08What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1626 vs Gremillion 1223
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 403 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 80% vs Gremillion 0%
Henninger
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 50% vs Gremillion 30%
Henninger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +3 · Gremillion -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gremillion form (0%) is below what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.07 / Gremillion 7.50
Signal prob.88% / 13%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034063
Henninger1.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Gremillion7.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayGremillion0wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerGremillionH − GBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.018.0+17.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerGremillionBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 96 vs 3 / 1452.1%21.4%50 / 96 vs 3 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.233.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.07/Gremillion 7.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.5%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger—1113113M. Gremillion—41130
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113
M. Gremillion10
LAug 31 · 17:30M. Gremillion—119911122M. Stefanidis—811117143LAug 31 · 16:00S. Almeida—981111113M. Gremillion—11116882LAug 31 · 14:00A. Limonov1.171111113M. Gremillion4.507980LAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113LAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113WMay 15 · 07:30M. Gremillion2.00137311113J. Lama1.73111111862WMay 14 · 16:30M. Gremillion4.501110114113M. Scharrer1.1771261132WMay 14 · 14:28M. Gremillion1.4421111113L. Dreykorn2.63119981LMay 14 · 12:30M. Danzer1.051711113M. Gremillion8.5015740
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