TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034080
Played Aug 31Finished
Anton Limonov
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210118611116––
Marius Henninger
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeAnton Limonov to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Limonov above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Anton Limonov at 58.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Anton Limonov 1–0 Marius Henninger Marius Henninger has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Limonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Limonov 1994 vs Henninger 1560
Limonov
Correct
both rated, 434 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Limonov 60% vs Henninger 20%
Limonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Limonov 60% vs Henninger 40%
Limonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Limonov +3 · Henninger -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Limonov) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Limonov form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLimonov 1.22 / Henninger 4.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Limonov)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034080
Limonov1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Henninger4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLimonov1wins
AwayHenninger0wins
Limonov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLimonovHenningerL − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match57.053.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLimonovHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 9 vs 45 / 8977.8%50.6%7 / 9 vs 45 / 89Avg sets wonper match2.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match42.335.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LimonovLimonov 1.22/Henninger 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Limonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Limonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 5 · 08:30A. Limonov—111616143M. Henninger—91418121
A. Limonov10
WSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121WSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151WAug 31 · 15:00A. Limonov1.041111113S. Amann9.002860WAug 31 · 14:00A. Limonov1.171111113M. Gremillion4.507980WAug 31 · 08:30A. Limonov1.3211116113S. Almeida3.00681191WAug 31 · 06:30A. Limonov1.501111113M. Stefanidis2.407850WAug 19 · 14:35T. Preechayan1.83714581A. Limonov1.83111211113LAug 19 · 10:20W. Koehl2.7511116113A. Limonov1.40991191
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113
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