TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034068
Played Aug 31Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.08
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911114113––
Samuel Amann
Away
7.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSamuel Amann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Samuel Amann below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 65 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Samuel Amann at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Samuel Amann Samuel Amann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:03What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1603 vs Amann 1140
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 463 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 60% vs Amann 20%
Henninger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 40% vs Amann 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +2 · Amann -4
Amann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (60%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.08 / Amann 7.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034068
Henninger1.08
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Amann7.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayAmann0wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerAmannH − ABasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.021.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerAmannBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 92 vs 10 / 5951.1%17%47 / 92 vs 10 / 59Avg sets wonper match1.91.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.129.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.08/Amann 7.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.6%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 18 · 14:30M. Henninger—1111133S. Amann—64110
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 25 · 10:30M. Henninger2.90115871E. Huzsvar1.3781111113
S. Amann10
LSep 1 · 06:30S. Almeida—1111113S. Amann—9630LAug 31 · 15:00A. Limonov1.041111113S. Amann9.002860LAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183LAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113LAug 31 · 10:30S. Amann2.10118771M. Stefanidis1.6651111113WAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113LAug 11 · 06:30J. Willeke1.201111113S. Amann4.334870LAug 10 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3211611113S. Amann3.00811891WAug 10 · 13:00J. Grauer2.00811471S. Amann1.7311811113WAug 10 · 12:00S. Amann1.281111113M. Ozdemir3.506680
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