TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12394540
Played Aug 11Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118117––––
Samuel Amann
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Samuel Amann below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 55.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Johannes Willeke 1–0 Samuel Amann Samuel Amann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Willeke
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1357 vs Amann 1126
Willeke
Correct
both rated, 232 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 60% vs Amann 40%
Willeke
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 30% vs Amann 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -1 · Amann -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Willeke) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Amann form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 1.20 / Amann 4.33
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Willeke)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12394540
Willeke1.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Amann4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWilleke1wins
AwayAmann0wins
Willeke leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWillekeAmannW − ABasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.019.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeAmannBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 38 vs 13 / 6829%19.1%11 / 38 vs 13 / 68Avg sets wonper match1.41.1per matchAvg pointsper match30.530.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WillekeWilleke 1.20/Amann 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Willeke · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Willeke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 11 · 06:30J. Willeke—1111113S. Amann—4870
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
S. Amann10
LSep 1 · 06:30S. Almeida—1111113S. Amann—9630LAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431LAug 31 · 15:00A. Limonov1.041111113S. Amann9.002860LAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183LAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113LAug 31 · 10:30S. Amann2.10118771M. Stefanidis1.6651111113WAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113LAug 10 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3211611113S. Amann3.00811891WAug 10 · 13:00J. Grauer2.00811471S. Amann1.7311811113WAug 10 · 12:00S. Amann1.281111113M. Ozdemir3.506680
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